The math, step by step
Every number below is computed live in your browser from the released catalogue data, following the pipeline of the paper (v1.0.8-review). The coordinate transform used here reproduces the release's astropy implementation to < 1 milliparsec and < 4 cm s⁻¹ across all 1,952 orbit-sample stars.
1.Six numbers from Gaia DR3
Everything starts from the 6-dimensional Gaia solution: position, parallax, proper motion, and the RVS line-of-sight velocity. The parent selection (ADQL on gaiadr3.gaia_source) requires a measured radial velocity, , and finite proper motions — about 33.8 million stars.
2.Parallax zero-point (Lindegren et al. 2021)
Gaia parallaxes carry a small colour-, magnitude- and position-dependent bias. The release applies the Lindegren et al. (2021) per-star correction inside its validity window (6 < G < 21).
3.Distance (Bailer-Jones et al. 2021)
Inverting a noisy parallax biases distances, so the release adopts the Bailer-Jones et al. (2021) photogeometric posterior where available (zero-point-corrected inverse parallax otherwise, and only as a sensitivity check). The stored 16th/84th percentiles drive asymmetric (split-normal) draws in the Monte Carlo.
4.Into the Galactic rest frame
The observables become a Cartesian position and velocity in the Galactocentric frame (astropy conventions):
where rotates the galactic centre to , tilts for the Sun's height , and . The release's default frame: (GRAVITY 2019), , (Eilers 2019, consistent with the adopted potential), Schönrich (2010) solar motion. Try the paper's sensitivity variants:
5.The Galactic rest-frame speed
This is a total speed — not the azimuthal velocity used by low- selections (the paper finds zero overlap with Filion et al. 2025). A typical disc star near the Sun has km s⁻¹; the catalogue threshold of 25 km s⁻¹ is about 10% of the local circular speed.
6.Monte Carlo membership probability & tiers
A point estimate is not enough near a threshold. The release draws (ϖ, μα*, μδ) from the full Gaia covariance (Cholesky of the 3×3 submatrix), v_r from its Gaussian error, and distance from the asymmetric Bailer-Jones posterior — adaptively 500 / 5,000 / 10,000 realisations per star (seed 20260502) — and defines
Tiers: A P>0.95 · B 0.84<P≤0.95 · C 0.5<P≤0.84 · Dpoint-estimate < 25 but P≤0.5. The sum of (1−P) over a tier estimates its contamination: 30.8 ± 5.3 expected false positives among the 541 Tier A+B stars.
7.Why 'slow' means 'plunging'
Energy conservation along an orbit in a static potential reads . Catching a star with means catching it at a turning point with specific angular momentum . In any centrally concentrated potential such a star must fall nearly radially toward the inner Galaxy: eccentricity . The paper is explicit that this is largely a kinematic corollary of the selection — the catalogue's value is which stars are in this state, with calibrated probabilities.